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Keeton & Co Real Estate

town · September 2026

Mechanicsville, Virginia housing market

Updated

Data through October 3, 2026 · part of the Richmond metro report

The median sale price in Mechanicsville was $490,000 in September 2026, up 2.2% from Sep 2025. 63 homes closed, down 7.4% vs Sep 2025. Active inventory stood at 185 listings at month end, up 10.8% vs Sep 2025.

Mechanicsville at a glance, September 2026

  • Median sale price

    $490,000

    +2.2% vs Sep 2025

  • Active listings

    185

    +10.8% vs Sep 2025

  • Homes sold

    63

    -7.4% vs Sep 2025

  • Median days on market

    12 days

    +2 days vs Sep 2025

  • Months of supply

    2.4 mo

    +0.3 mo vs Sep 2025

  • Sale-to-list ratio

    100.0%

    Flat vs Sep 2025

  • Had a price reduction

    28.6%

    +8.0 pts vs Sep 2025

  • Sales with seller concessions

    30.2%

    -13.9 pts vs Sep 2025

What is happening in the Mechanicsville housing market?

The median sale price in Mechanicsville was $490,000 in September 2026, up 2.2% from Sep 2025.

63 homes closed, down 7.4% vs Sep 2025.

Active inventory stood at 185 listings at month end, up 10.8% vs Sep 2025.

That is 2.4 months of supply at the recent sales pace, which favors sellers.

The typical sale went under contract in 12 days (+2 days vs Sep 2025).

Homes sold for a median 100.0% of final list price; 39.7% sold above list.

The figures above are computed from MLS records. Analyst commentary for this period is being reviewed and will appear here when approved.

How does the Mechanicsville market differ by price range?

The area-wide median hides a lot. Each band below shows sales, price, speed and supply for that range only.

Mechanicsville by price range, September 2026
Price rangeHomes soldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketSale-to-list ratioHad a price reductionActive listingsMonths of supply
$1M+ 2————8—
Under $250k 0————3—
$250k–$350k 8$330,00047 days96.6%62.5%141.4 mo
$350k–$500k 25$420,0009 days100.0%28%792.4 mo
$500k–$750k 22$592,47512 days100.0%18.2%612.2 mo
$750k–$1M 6$850,75032 days97.1%33.3%204.3 mo

Cells showing n=… have too few sales to publish a reliable figure.

How do property types compare in Mechanicsville?

Detached homes, townhouses and condos behave differently, and new construction moves on its own schedule.

Mechanicsville by property type, September 2026
Property typeHomes soldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketSale-to-list ratioHad a price reductionActive listingsMonths of supply
Detached 57$510,00011 days100.0%26.3%1432.1 mo
Townhouse / attached 6$422,50058 days98.5%50%283.5 mo
Condo 0————14—

Cells showing n=… have too few sales to publish a reliable figure.

Mechanicsville new construction vs resale, September 2026
New vs resaleHomes soldMedian sale priceMedian days on marketHad a price reductionMonths of supply
New construction 6$735,853125 days33.3%9.6 mo
Resale 57$480,00010 days28.1%1.9 mo

Cells showing n=… have too few sales to publish a reliable figure.

What does this mean for sellers?

With 2.4 months of supply, a correctly priced home still has more buyers than competition. Pricing from closed sales, not from a neighbor's asking price, is what captures that.

Median sale-to-list of 100.0% means sellers are getting full price on well-presented homes.

Find out what this means for your home · What it costs to sell

What does this mean for buyers?

Inventory is tight at 2.4 months of supply. Get fully pre-approved before you tour, and expect to compete on well-priced homes.

The median home went under contract in 12 days, so decide your walk-away price before you tour.

Active inventory is +10.8% vs Sep 2025, so there is more to choose from than last year.

How we work with buyers · Buyer agreements explained

No pressure, no spam

What does the Mechanicsville market mean for your home?

A licensed agent reaches out within 5 minutes during business hours, from (804) 556-1228.

By submitting, you agree that Keeton & Co Real Estate and its agents may call and text you at the number you provided about your real estate inquiry, including by automated means and AI-generated or prerecorded voice. Consent is not a condition of purchase. Msg & data rates may apply. Reply STOP to opt out. Privacy Policy

How have Mechanicsville prices trended?

Monthly series from the same MLS records, computed with the same method for every month shown. Toggle 12, 24 or 36 months.

Median sale price
$384K$423K$462K$501K Oct 2023Apr 2024Oct 2024Apr 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Sep 2026

Median sale price: $490,000 in Sep 2026, up 12.3% from $436,250 in Oct 2023. High $490,000 (Sep 2026), low $395,000 (Jan 2025).

Median sale price, monthly
MonthValue
Oct 2023$436,250
Nov 2023$464,950
Dec 2023$442,500
Jan 2024$410,000
Feb 2024$417,500
Mar 2024$480,900
Apr 2024$421,000
May 2024$467,500
Jun 2024$470,000
Jul 2024$465,750
Aug 2024$432,500
Sep 2024$452,275
Oct 2024$460,000
Nov 2024$432,000
Dec 2024$441,500
Jan 2025$395,000
Feb 2025$425,000
Mar 2025$423,750
Apr 2025$455,000
May 2025$450,000
Jun 2025$472,495
Jul 2025$450,000
Aug 2025$472,500
Sep 2025$479,500
Oct 2025$457,470
Nov 2025$439,750
Dec 2025$487,500
Jan 2026$483,156
Feb 2026$460,000
Mar 2026$458,500
Apr 2026$460,000
May 2026$475,000
Jun 2026$465,080
Jul 2026$486,100
Aug 2026$473,750
Sep 2026$490,000
Homes sold
04182123 Nov 2023May 2024Nov 2024May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Oct 2026

Homes sold: 2 in Oct 2026, down 96.6% from 59 in Nov 2023. High 110 (Jun 2025), low 2 (Oct 2026).

Homes sold, monthly
MonthValue
Nov 202359
Dec 202344
Jan 202433
Feb 202452
Mar 202454
Apr 202460
May 202489
Jun 202476
Jul 202480
Aug 202468
Sep 202482
Oct 202493
Nov 202471
Dec 202476
Jan 202547
Feb 202547
Mar 202565
Apr 202571
May 202588
Jun 2025110
Jul 202578
Aug 202590
Sep 202568
Oct 202598
Nov 202558
Dec 202570
Jan 202651
Feb 202658
Mar 202664
Apr 202695
May 202693
Jun 2026104
Jul 2026101
Aug 202668
Sep 202663
Oct 20262
Share of sales with a price reduction
9%21%33%45% Oct 2023Apr 2024Oct 2024Apr 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Sep 2026

Share of sales with a price reduction: 28.6% in Sep 2026, up 58.0% from 18.1% in Oct 2023. High 41.8% (Oct 2025), low 12.5% (Jul 2024).

Share of sales with a price reduction, monthly
MonthValue
Oct 202318.1%
Nov 202335.6%
Dec 202325%
Jan 202430.3%
Feb 202426.9%
Mar 202420.4%
Apr 202413.3%
May 202413.5%
Jun 202417.1%
Jul 202412.5%
Aug 202422.1%
Sep 202424.4%
Oct 202425.8%
Nov 202426.8%
Dec 202431.6%
Jan 202527.7%
Feb 202519.1%
Mar 202516.9%
Apr 202519.7%
May 202518.2%
Jun 202517.3%
Jul 202533.3%
Aug 202522.2%
Sep 202520.6%
Oct 202541.8%
Nov 202534.5%
Dec 202537.1%
Jan 202629.4%
Feb 202629.3%
Mar 202621.9%
Apr 202612.6%
May 202618.3%
Jun 202619.2%
Jul 202624.8%
Aug 202617.6%
Sep 202628.6%
Sale-to-list ratio
100%100%100%101% Oct 2023Apr 2024Oct 2024Apr 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Sep 2026

Sale-to-list ratio: 100.0% in Sep 2026, down 0.0% from 100.0% in Oct 2023. High 100.6% (Mar 2025), low 100.0% (Nov 2023).

Sale-to-list ratio, monthly
MonthValue
Oct 2023100.0%
Nov 2023100.0%
Dec 2023100.0%
Jan 2024100.0%
Feb 2024100.0%
Mar 2024100.0%
Apr 2024100.3%
May 2024100.0%
Jun 2024100.0%
Jul 2024100.0%
Aug 2024100.0%
Sep 2024100.0%
Oct 2024100.0%
Nov 2024100.0%
Dec 2024100.0%
Jan 2025100.0%
Feb 2025100.0%
Mar 2025100.6%
Apr 2025100.3%
May 2025100.0%
Jun 2025100.0%
Jul 2025100.0%
Aug 2025100.0%
Sep 2025100.0%
Oct 2025100.0%
Nov 2025100.0%
Dec 2025100.0%
Jan 2026100.0%
Feb 2026100.0%
Mar 2026100.0%
Apr 2026100.0%
May 2026100.0%
Jun 2026100.0%
Jul 2026100.0%
Aug 2026100.0%
Sep 2026100.0%

How have Mechanicsville inventory and sales pace trended?

Supply and speed, month by month.

Active listings at month end
94131168205 Nov 2023May 2024Nov 2024May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Oct 2026

Active listings at month end: 194 in Oct 2026, up 38.6% from 140 in Nov 2023. High 194 (Oct 2026), low 105 (Dec 2024).

Active listings at month end, monthly
MonthValue
Nov 2023140
Dec 2023120
Jan 2024114
Feb 2024126
Mar 2024126
Apr 2024145
May 2024148
Jun 2024157
Jul 2024163
Aug 2024164
Sep 2024149
Oct 2024161
Nov 2024132
Dec 2024105
Jan 2025117
Feb 2025127
Mar 2025135
Apr 2025185
May 2025158
Jun 2025167
Jul 2025174
Aug 2025174
Sep 2025167
Oct 2025178
Nov 2025143
Dec 2025127
Jan 2026128
Feb 2026130
Mar 2026145
Apr 2026166
May 2026155
Jun 2026145
Jul 2026174
Aug 2026159
Sep 2026185
Oct 2026194
Median days on market
391622 Oct 2023Apr 2024Oct 2024Apr 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Sep 2026

Median days on market: 12 days in Sep 2026, up 71.4% from 7 days in Oct 2023. High 20 days (Dec 2024), low 5 days (Mar 2025).

Median days on market, monthly
MonthValue
Oct 20237 days
Nov 202311 days
Dec 202313 days
Jan 202416 days
Feb 20248 days
Mar 20246 days
Apr 20246 days
May 20246 days
Jun 20249 days
Jul 20247 days
Aug 20247 days
Sep 20248 days
Oct 202410 days
Nov 20247 days
Dec 202420 days
Jan 202513 days
Feb 202511 days
Mar 20255 days
Apr 20256 days
May 20255 days
Jun 20256 days
Jul 202510 days
Aug 20258 days
Sep 202510 days
Oct 202515 days
Nov 202512 days
Dec 202515 days
Jan 202618 days
Feb 20269 days
Mar 20268 days
Apr 20266 days
May 20266 days
Jun 20266 days
Jul 20267 days
Aug 20268 days
Sep 202612 days
Months of supply
1223 Nov 2023May 2024Nov 2024May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Oct 2026

Months of supply: 2.7 mo in Oct 2026, up 28.6% from 2.1 mo in Nov 2023. High 2.8 mo (Feb 2024), low 1.3 mo (Dec 2024).

Months of supply, monthly
MonthValue
Nov 20232.1 mo
Dec 20232.1 mo
Jan 20242.5 mo
Feb 20242.8 mo
Mar 20242.7 mo
Apr 20242.5 mo
May 20242.2 mo
Jun 20242.1 mo
Jul 20242 mo
Aug 20242.2 mo
Sep 20241.9 mo
Oct 20242 mo
Nov 20241.6 mo
Dec 20241.3 mo
Jan 20251.8 mo
Feb 20252.2 mo
Mar 20252.5 mo
Apr 20252.8 mo
May 20252.1 mo
Jun 20251.8 mo
Jul 20251.9 mo
Aug 20251.9 mo
Sep 20252.1 mo
Oct 20252.1 mo
Nov 20251.9 mo
Dec 20251.7 mo
Jan 20262.1 mo
Feb 20262.2 mo
Mar 20262.4 mo
Apr 20262.2 mo
May 20261.8 mo
Jun 20261.5 mo
Jul 20261.8 mo
Aug 20261.7 mo
Sep 20262.4 mo
Oct 20262.7 mo
New listings
053105158 Nov 2023May 2024Nov 2024May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Oct 2026

New listings: 12 in Oct 2026, down 70.0% from 40 in Nov 2023. High 142 (Apr 2025), low 12 (Oct 2026).

New listings, monthly
MonthValue
Nov 202340
Dec 202328
Jan 202462
Feb 202467
Mar 202482
Apr 2024102
May 202494
Jun 2024100
Jul 202496
Aug 202496
Sep 202492
Oct 2024107
Nov 202453
Dec 202445
Jan 202576
Feb 202576
Mar 202595
Apr 2025142
May 2025101
Jun 2025102
Jul 2025106
Aug 202592
Sep 202597
Oct 2025104
Nov 202557
Dec 202541
Jan 202692
Feb 202683
Mar 2026126
Apr 2026132
May 2026107
Jun 202695
Jul 2026113
Aug 202680
Sep 2026107
Oct 202612

How are these numbers calculated?

Geography. Mechanicsville as defined in Keeton & Co's market model (MLS county, city, ZIP and area codes).

Source. Closed and active listings recorded in CVR MLS, replicated nightly. Data through October 3, 2026. Property types: Residential (detached, townhouse/attached, condo, 2–4 unit). Leases, land and commercial are excluded.

Exclusions. Sales under $25,000; distressed and non-arm's-length sales (Auction, Bankruptcy Property, In Foreclosure, REO…).

Sample rules. A figure is suppressed below 5 records, flagged low-confidence below 10, and moderate below 25. Year-over-year comparisons are shown only when both periods have at least 5 records.

Days on market
MLS-reported DaysOnMarket for closings (list-to-contract). Fallback contract_date - on_market_date.
Cumulative DOM
CumulativeDaysOnMarket where reported (CAAR)
Price per square foot
ClosePrice / LivingArea where LivingArea >= 300
Seller concessions
ConcessionsAmount > 0 (CVR only); pct of close price
Contract date
CVR: PendingTimestamp::date; CAAR: on_market_date + DaysOnMarket (proxy). Only Pending/ActiveUnderContract/Closed.
Months of supply
active_at_period_end / (closings in trailing 3 months / 3)
Stale listing
active at period end with (end - on_market_date) > 90 days
On-market date
COALESCE(OnMarketDate, ListingContractDate)
Resolution date
OffMarketDate, else CloseDate/WithdrawnDate/CancellationDate/ExpirationDate by status; NULL while Active/ComingSoon
Price reduction
closed listings with OriginalListPrice > ListPrice; amount = OriginalListPrice - ListPrice
Closed sales
StandardStatus='Closed' AND CloseDate in [start,end]
Went under contract
contract_date in [start,end]
Sale-to-list
median(ClosePrice / ListPrice)
Absorption rate
closed_in_period / active_at_period_end * 100 (period normalized to 30.4 days)
Active listings
on_market_date <= end AND (contract_date IS NULL OR contract_date > end) AND (off_market_date IS NULL OR off_market_date > end); excludes ComingSoon
Sale-to-original-list
median(ClosePrice / OriginalListPrice)
New listings
on_market_date in [start,end]
Under contract
contract_date <= end AND (off_market_date IS NULL OR off_market_date > end)

Methodology Residential sales methodology v1 (v1). Statistics are computed by Keeton & Co's market-intelligence engine from the MLS records above; the commentary interprets those figures and never alters them. Reviewed by Keeton & Co.

Living in Mechanicsville: schools, commute and FAQs → · Monthly report, all areas

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By submitting, you agree that Keeton & Co Real Estate and its agents may call and text you at the number you provided about your real estate inquiry, including by automated means and AI-generated or prerecorded voice. Consent is not a condition of purchase. Msg & data rates may apply. Reply STOP to opt out. Privacy Policy

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A licensed agent reaches out within 5 minutes during business hours, from (804) 556-1228.

By submitting, you agree that Keeton & Co Real Estate and its agents may call and text you at the number you provided about your real estate inquiry, including by automated means and AI-generated or prerecorded voice. Consent is not a condition of purchase. Msg & data rates may apply. Reply STOP to opt out. Privacy Policy